Justin Verlander has just signed a 5-year, $80 million contract extension with the Detroit Tigers, who bought out his remaining arbitration years and will finally pay him like the ace he is. It's hard to argue with their decision considering he has won at least 17 games with a sub-3.70 ERA in three of the last four years. There is no doubt in my mind that, if he stays healthy for the duration, he will earn every dollar of that contract. Unfortunately, after last season, I'm concerned about that right arm of his.
Verlander pitched a total of 202 and 201 innings in 07' and 08' respectively, but that total jumped to 240 innings last year when he lead the league in pitches thrown with 3931. That was good for 112.3 pitches per game, which easily lead all of baseball, and 304 pitches ahead of 2nd place (Felix Hernandez with 3627).
How will all those pitches last year affect his upcoming season? Nobody knows for sure. Maybe they will simply be proof that Verlander can handle a crap-load of innings year to year with no negative impact on his performance. Or maybe throwing all those innings at the age of 24-26 will prove too many for a relatively young arm and we will see a drop in his production in 2010. It has been well documented that pitchers who exceed their IP totals the previous season by 40 or more are at a higher risk for injury or a "dead arm' period the following year.
Am I saying you should avoid drafting Verlander this season? No, of course not. Even at 75 or 80 percent effectiveness he is still better than most pitchers you'll draft this year. Unfortunately, he's going to be drafted within the first 3 or 4 rounds of your draft and, considering the risk, I'm just not confident he'd make a solid return on that kind of investment. At best you will get a slight regression from his career year in 09'. At worst: he blows out his elbow by the all-star break and goes to visit the dreaded Dr. Andrews. Either way, I don't see him matching his numbers from last year.
The verdict: Let another manager draft him early and roll the dice. Go with a proven durable arm like Halladay or Sabathia instead.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Daily: Tigers Hope to Shut Off Their Leaky 9th-Inning "Valve"
The Detroit Tigers have signed 30 year-old Jose Valverde to handle their closing duties with a 2-year, $14 million contract (with a $9 million club option for a third year).
After watching their bullpen blow 24 saves and losing Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, who combined for 40 of the clubs 42 saves in 09', to free agency, the Tigers were desperate for a reliever with closer experience. Valverde fits the bill after posting 25 saves with a 2.33 ERA for the Astros last year, and 167 career saves overall. Whether or not he is worth $7 million a year and the loss of the Tigers' first-round pick (19th overall) in June is certainly up for debate. But as a fantasy baseball manager I obviously couldn't care less as long as he performs in line with his draft slot.
Although he has pitched exclusively in the NL throughout his career, he should have no problem making the transition to the offensively superior AL. He has pitched in hitter friendly parks in both Arizona and Houston, so moving to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park should mostly cancel out any drop in production.
Considering his predecessor, Rodney, managed 37 saves despite a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, Valverde should easily surpass the 25 saves he reached with the Astros.
If he remains healthy, I would expect numbers close to his career averages, 3.17 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP to go along with about 35 saves, putting him in the upper echelon of closers for the 2010 season.
After watching their bullpen blow 24 saves and losing Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, who combined for 40 of the clubs 42 saves in 09', to free agency, the Tigers were desperate for a reliever with closer experience. Valverde fits the bill after posting 25 saves with a 2.33 ERA for the Astros last year, and 167 career saves overall. Whether or not he is worth $7 million a year and the loss of the Tigers' first-round pick (19th overall) in June is certainly up for debate. But as a fantasy baseball manager I obviously couldn't care less as long as he performs in line with his draft slot.
Although he has pitched exclusively in the NL throughout his career, he should have no problem making the transition to the offensively superior AL. He has pitched in hitter friendly parks in both Arizona and Houston, so moving to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park should mostly cancel out any drop in production.
Considering his predecessor, Rodney, managed 37 saves despite a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, Valverde should easily surpass the 25 saves he reached with the Astros.
If he remains healthy, I would expect numbers close to his career averages, 3.17 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP to go along with about 35 saves, putting him in the upper echelon of closers for the 2010 season.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
The Red Sox add a "Belt-re" to their outfit, hang Lowell out to dry
I know, I know... weak title. Best I could come up with without my coffee today. But enough about me...
Adrian Beltre has signed a 1 year deal with the Sox (with a $5 million player option for next year; $1 million buyout) to play third base, signaling the end of Mike Lowell's tenure with the club. What does this mean for fantasy owners? Buy low on Beltre and expect a rebound from a poor, injury plagued season.
Beltre has spent his career playing half of his games in pitcher friendly parks in LA and Seattle, but now gets to put his pull-happy approach to good use. The Green Monster will make an appealing target for Beltre and should help him improve on his .265 average from last year. Don't forget: this guy has averaged 25 homers and about 90 RBI's throughout his career to go along with a .270 average. With a friendlier ballpark and a much improved lineup around him, I expect the still in his prime 30 year old (he'll be 31 in April) to improve on those averages and provide a solid return on your investment.
As for Lowell? Considering his injury history I wouldn't use more than a late round flier on him to back up your CI slots and hope that he recovers well from his thumb surgery. That is, of course, assuming he is traded to another team (hopefully an AL club with a DH opening) who will actually give him some playing time. With the addition of Beltre, a trade is no longer a matter of "if" but "when and where". There are some reports that the Mets could be interested in him as a first baseman. If that is the case, avoid him at all costs on draft day. Even if he's healthy, his dwindling power would further shrink in spacious Citi Field.
Adrian Beltre has signed a 1 year deal with the Sox (with a $5 million player option for next year; $1 million buyout) to play third base, signaling the end of Mike Lowell's tenure with the club. What does this mean for fantasy owners? Buy low on Beltre and expect a rebound from a poor, injury plagued season.
Beltre has spent his career playing half of his games in pitcher friendly parks in LA and Seattle, but now gets to put his pull-happy approach to good use. The Green Monster will make an appealing target for Beltre and should help him improve on his .265 average from last year. Don't forget: this guy has averaged 25 homers and about 90 RBI's throughout his career to go along with a .270 average. With a friendlier ballpark and a much improved lineup around him, I expect the still in his prime 30 year old (he'll be 31 in April) to improve on those averages and provide a solid return on your investment.
As for Lowell? Considering his injury history I wouldn't use more than a late round flier on him to back up your CI slots and hope that he recovers well from his thumb surgery. That is, of course, assuming he is traded to another team (hopefully an AL club with a DH opening) who will actually give him some playing time. With the addition of Beltre, a trade is no longer a matter of "if" but "when and where". There are some reports that the Mets could be interested in him as a first baseman. If that is the case, avoid him at all costs on draft day. Even if he's healthy, his dwindling power would further shrink in spacious Citi Field.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Daily: Young Arms Raising Eyebrows - Pick em' Up?
Ah, the rookie phenom... nothing gets a fantasy baseball manager's heart racing quite like a hot call-up tearing up the league. There are a few out there right now, baffling major league hitters and giving all you managers with roster spots open itchy trigger fingers. But are these guys for real? Certainly the failure rate for young pitchers is exceedingly high, so can we trust this new crop?
Rick Porcello, SP/DET: Detroit's 1st round pick in 07' surprised many when he won the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training at the tender age of 20. However, when you're competing against guys like Dontrelle "Strikes are for Losers" Willis, it really isn't much of an accomplishment. Is he for real? He's been compared to Roy Halladay since he was drafted and, honestly, it's hard to argue with the results. His 4-seamer hits 97, his 2-seamer destroys RH'ers, and he spots them both well, usually keeping his pitches low in the zone, which induces plenty of GB's. His changeup is just OK at the moment and he hasn't gotten complete command of his curveball yet, but they are decent enough right now to keep hitters honest. He won't strike out a ton of batters until those pitches develop (72 k's in 125 IP in minors last year), but he should be a decent fantasy contributor anyway. A 2.5-1 GB ratio and a pitcher friendly home park will keep his HR total and ERA respectable, and low walk totals for a young pitcher will keep the whip in line as well. He won't get a lot of wins due to a shaky bullpen and a strict pitch count, but 12-14 isn't out of the question.
The verdict? If wins and/or strikeouts aren't a concern for you, he should be a decent option, particularly in the 1st half before hitters adjust to his stuff.
Ricky Romero, SP/TOR: I know he looks great now. He certainly does. A couple wins, great ERA/Whip, 13/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I think you know where I'm going with this. He just doesn't have the track record to keep this up. He's got an average fastball that sits around 92-93 that he has trouble throwing for strikes consistently. His curveball and changeup are decent enough pitches, but can be erratic. In the minor leagues he has a career 4.33 ERA with 175 walks in 416 IP. I wouldn't take those numbers on my team if those were his major league totals. Listen... down the line, a year or two from now, if he harnesses command of his fastball, maybe he could be a decent #3 starter for Toronto. I'm not sure, however, if he'll ever be a strong fantasy option. I certainly don't think he is now, despite the hot start.
The verdict? Either pick him up and trade him for value right now, or stay away. He's not a good long term bet this year.
Glen Perkins, SP/MIN: I really liked this guy while he was coming up through the minors. He struck out over a batter an inning while keeping his walk totals respectable. Minor leaguers only hit about .235 against him while he maintained an ERA around 3.50. Decent numbers, an organization that know how to develop talent. It all looked promising...right up until last year when he had a 27/19 K-BB ratio in AAA before giving up 183 hits in 151 innings in the majors with only 74 strikeouts. He still has a good fastball that sits in the low 90's to go along with a solid changeup and a very good curve. I expect improvement on those numbers this year, and I still like him. But...
The verdict? He has #2-3 starter potential based on his stuff and minor league track record, but it looks like it's going to take him a while to figure things out. Don't expect more than average numbers this year... good enough for the Twins, but fantasy baseball waiver wire material.
I'm sure there will be more young guns brought up this year that will raise some eyebrows, and I'll be here to keep things real for you. Jump on in with any comments or questions about other young pitchers out there. Feel free to use my lack of social life to your advantage!
Rick Porcello, SP/DET: Detroit's 1st round pick in 07' surprised many when he won the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training at the tender age of 20. However, when you're competing against guys like Dontrelle "Strikes are for Losers" Willis, it really isn't much of an accomplishment. Is he for real? He's been compared to Roy Halladay since he was drafted and, honestly, it's hard to argue with the results. His 4-seamer hits 97, his 2-seamer destroys RH'ers, and he spots them both well, usually keeping his pitches low in the zone, which induces plenty of GB's. His changeup is just OK at the moment and he hasn't gotten complete command of his curveball yet, but they are decent enough right now to keep hitters honest. He won't strike out a ton of batters until those pitches develop (72 k's in 125 IP in minors last year), but he should be a decent fantasy contributor anyway. A 2.5-1 GB ratio and a pitcher friendly home park will keep his HR total and ERA respectable, and low walk totals for a young pitcher will keep the whip in line as well. He won't get a lot of wins due to a shaky bullpen and a strict pitch count, but 12-14 isn't out of the question.
The verdict? If wins and/or strikeouts aren't a concern for you, he should be a decent option, particularly in the 1st half before hitters adjust to his stuff.
Ricky Romero, SP/TOR: I know he looks great now. He certainly does. A couple wins, great ERA/Whip, 13/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I think you know where I'm going with this. He just doesn't have the track record to keep this up. He's got an average fastball that sits around 92-93 that he has trouble throwing for strikes consistently. His curveball and changeup are decent enough pitches, but can be erratic. In the minor leagues he has a career 4.33 ERA with 175 walks in 416 IP. I wouldn't take those numbers on my team if those were his major league totals. Listen... down the line, a year or two from now, if he harnesses command of his fastball, maybe he could be a decent #3 starter for Toronto. I'm not sure, however, if he'll ever be a strong fantasy option. I certainly don't think he is now, despite the hot start.
The verdict? Either pick him up and trade him for value right now, or stay away. He's not a good long term bet this year.
Glen Perkins, SP/MIN: I really liked this guy while he was coming up through the minors. He struck out over a batter an inning while keeping his walk totals respectable. Minor leaguers only hit about .235 against him while he maintained an ERA around 3.50. Decent numbers, an organization that know how to develop talent. It all looked promising...right up until last year when he had a 27/19 K-BB ratio in AAA before giving up 183 hits in 151 innings in the majors with only 74 strikeouts. He still has a good fastball that sits in the low 90's to go along with a solid changeup and a very good curve. I expect improvement on those numbers this year, and I still like him. But...
The verdict? He has #2-3 starter potential based on his stuff and minor league track record, but it looks like it's going to take him a while to figure things out. Don't expect more than average numbers this year... good enough for the Twins, but fantasy baseball waiver wire material.
I'm sure there will be more young guns brought up this year that will raise some eyebrows, and I'll be here to keep things real for you. Jump on in with any comments or questions about other young pitchers out there. Feel free to use my lack of social life to your advantage!
Monday, April 20, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Daily: Yankee Stadium - Coors Field v.2.0
I attended the Yankees/Indians game on Sunday afternoon and witnessed something incredible! I'm not referring to the controversial go-ahead homer by Posada or Carl Pavano's ability to stay on the mound for 6 innings without straining a butt muscle. What amazed me most was the fact that the Yankee organization managed to build this stadium at an elevation of 3,000 feet without anyone noticing!
Yes, loyal (possibly 3?) readers, balls are flying out of that place at such an alarming rate that I'm convinced even Brett Gardner (all 15o lbs of him) is a threat to hit 30 homers this year. OK, maybe 10 if he's lucky, but you get the idea here. I think A-Rod would be willing to amputate the leg attached to that bum hip of his if he could just get back into the batters box for these home games.
So, why should you care about all this anyway? Because if you are looking to pick up somebody up for your fantasy baseball team, especially as a short-term option, you may want to value any players with an upcoming series in Yankee Stadium a little higher. Unless CC Sabathia is on the mound, any decent available LH power hitter is a viable option. Also, every hitter in the Yankee lineup has seen their value rise a bit with every pop fly that lands in the bleachers. Well, except for Gardner, I suppose. There are some little league parks that could contain that guy.
Possibly available hitters to consider that have upcoming games in Yankee Stadium:
Ryan Sweeney OF/OAK - Lefty with OK power and speed
Mark Ellis 2B/OAK - Righty, but decent power for an INF and a fly ball hitter
Yes, loyal (possibly 3?) readers, balls are flying out of that place at such an alarming rate that I'm convinced even Brett Gardner (all 15o lbs of him) is a threat to hit 30 homers this year. OK, maybe 10 if he's lucky, but you get the idea here. I think A-Rod would be willing to amputate the leg attached to that bum hip of his if he could just get back into the batters box for these home games.
So, why should you care about all this anyway? Because if you are looking to pick up somebody up for your fantasy baseball team, especially as a short-term option, you may want to value any players with an upcoming series in Yankee Stadium a little higher. Unless CC Sabathia is on the mound, any decent available LH power hitter is a viable option. Also, every hitter in the Yankee lineup has seen their value rise a bit with every pop fly that lands in the bleachers. Well, except for Gardner, I suppose. There are some little league parks that could contain that guy.
Possibly available hitters to consider that have upcoming games in Yankee Stadium:
Ryan Sweeney OF/OAK - Lefty with OK power and speed
Mark Ellis 2B/OAK - Righty, but decent power for an INF and a fly ball hitter
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Amazon Contextual Product Ads
