Kyle Gibson won his major league debut yesterday for the Minnesota Twins. The former first round pick had a longer road to the majors than expected, but he finally got the call and didn't disappoint. He lasted 6 innings giving up 2 earned runs while striking out 5. He did give up 8 hits but didn't walk anybody in the process. While he looked impressive in his first start for the Twins, what we're concerned about is whether he'd look good on your fantasy team's roster for the second half. Let's take a look, shall we?
Gibson was drafted out of college back in 2009 but his road to the majors was stalled by Tommy John surgery in 2011. Fortunately, he has come back strong post-surgery and looks ready to become a fixture in the Twin's starting rotation. In 92 2/3 innings in AAA this year Gibson was 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 79 strikeouts. He has a high ground-ball rate (57% in AAA) which led to him giving up only 25 home runs in 368 minor league innings.
With a strikeout rate of 8.0 per 9 innings in the minors, he isn't going to wow anybody with his strikeout totals, although he will be above-average in that category. His ground-ball rate (and low HR totals) will keep his ERA down, as will pitching his home games in Target Field where HRs are harder to come by. He has given up 8.5 hits per 9 in the minors (7.6 in AAA this year), so he will give up his share of hits. Although he's only walked 2.4 batters per 9, his hit totals will keep his WHIP up a bit, so he isn't likely to help you much in that category. Even if he pitches well, I expect it to be in the 1.15-1.20 range. Solid numbers for sure, but not dominant.
If you are thinking about picking Gibson up for your fantasy team, one thing you must keep in mind is the innings cap the Twins will be imposing on him later this year. An official number hasn't been made public, but I would guess they'll let him go about 150 innings. He's already thrown over 90 in the minors this year, so he'll likely only be able to make about 10 more starts before they will shut him down.
I would certainly recommend picking Gibson up if you need some short-term pitching help, but don't expect him to make a huge impact on your team's standings in the second half. He won't win a ton of games with a poor Twins offense backing him up, and his WHIP and strikeout totals aren't going to help you all that much. I do expect his numbers to be solid, especially at home, so he is worth consideration as a temporary source of innings if your staff is dealing with injuries.
Verdict: Gibson's stock will be much higher next year when his innings won't be as closely monitored, but he's only a temporary solution this year. Expect solid/average numbers that won't hurt you, but won't help you much either.
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