Fantasy Baseball Daily: Young Arms Raising Eyebrows - Pick em' Up?

Ah, the rookie phenom... nothing gets a fantasy baseball manager's heart racing quite like a hot call-up tearing up the league. There are a few out there right now, baffling major league hitters and giving all you managers with roster spots open itchy trigger fingers. But are these guys for real? Certainly the failure rate for young pitchers is exceedingly high, so can we trust this new crop?

Rick Porcello, SP/DET: Detroit's 1st round pick in 07' surprised many when he won the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training at the tender age of 20. However, when you're competing against guys like Dontrelle "Strikes are for Losers" Willis, it really isn't much of an accomplishment. Is he for real? He's been compared to Roy Halladay since he was drafted and, honestly, it's hard to argue with the results. His 4-seamer hits 97, his 2-seamer destroys RH'ers, and he spots them both well, usually keeping his pitches low in the zone, which induces plenty of GB's. His changeup is just OK at the moment and he hasn't gotten complete command of his curveball yet, but they are decent enough right now to keep hitters honest. He won't strike out a ton of batters until those pitches develop (72 k's in 125 IP in minors last year), but he should be a decent fantasy contributor anyway. A 2.5-1 GB ratio and a pitcher friendly home park will keep his HR total and ERA respectable, and low walk totals for a young pitcher will keep the whip in line as well. He won't get a lot of wins due to a shaky bullpen and a strict pitch count, but 12-14 isn't out of the question.
The verdict? If wins and/or strikeouts aren't a concern for you, he should be a decent option, particularly in the 1st half before hitters adjust to his stuff.

Ricky Romero, SP/TOR: I know he looks great now. He certainly does. A couple wins, great ERA/Whip, 13/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I think you know where I'm going with this. He just doesn't have the track record to keep this up. He's got an average fastball that sits around 92-93 that he has trouble throwing for strikes consistently. His curveball and changeup are decent enough pitches, but can be erratic. In the minor leagues he has a career 4.33 ERA with 175 walks in 416 IP. I wouldn't take those numbers on my team if those were his major league totals. Listen... down the line, a year or two from now, if he harnesses command of his fastball, maybe he could be a decent #3 starter for Toronto. I'm not sure, however, if he'll ever be a strong fantasy option. I certainly don't think he is now, despite the hot start.
The verdict? Either pick him up and trade him for value right now, or stay away. He's not a good long term bet this year.

Glen Perkins, SP/MIN: I really liked this guy while he was coming up through the minors. He struck out over a batter an inning while keeping his walk totals respectable. Minor leaguers only hit about .235 against him while he maintained an ERA around 3.50. Decent numbers, an organization that know how to develop talent. It all looked promising...right up until last year when he had a 27/19 K-BB ratio in AAA before giving up 183 hits in 151 innings in the majors with only 74 strikeouts. He still has a good fastball that sits in the low 90's to go along with a solid changeup and a very good curve. I expect improvement on those numbers this year, and I still like him. But...
The verdict? He has #2-3 starter potential based on his stuff and minor league track record, but it looks like it's going to take him a while to figure things out. Don't expect more than average numbers this year... good enough for the Twins, but fantasy baseball waiver wire material.

I'm sure there will be more young guns brought up this year that will raise some eyebrows, and I'll be here to keep things real for you. Jump on in with any comments or questions about other young pitchers out there. Feel free to use my lack of social life to your advantage!