Will Middlebrooks: Will this middling power hitter turn things around?

The Boston Red Sox have just demoted their third baseman, Will Middlebrooks, to AAA Pawtucket to "get back on track."  Jose Iglesias will take over the hot corner in his absence.  After bursting onto the scene last year as a rookie, posting a .288 average with 15 HRs and 54 RBIs in just 75 games, Middlebrooks has struggled mightily to match the hype surrounding him entering this season.  Is it time to give up on him or is there reason for hope when the Red Sox bring him back up?  Let's take a look, shall we?

In 421 minor league games covering parts of 6 seasons, Middlebrooks posted a .276/.334/.456 slash line with 54 HRs and 35 SBs.  Those numbers are a bit deceiving however, as he greatly improved his production as he matured as a player and moved up through the system.  For example, in 2010 he hit 12 HRs over 435 ABs as a 21 year old in high-A.  However, in 2012 as a 23 year old in AAA, it took him just 93 ABs to hit 9 HRs before he was called up to the majors, where he hit those 15 home runs in 267 ABs.

Similarly, as his power improved, so did his strikeout rate.  He stuck out in a smaller percentage of his plate appearances each year in the minors, starting with a 32% strikeout rate as a 19 year old in low-A, and finishing at 18% in 100 AAA plate appearances as a 23 year old.  So, how has he fared against major league pitching?  In 2012 his strikeout rate rose to 24% against major league pitching, and he has taken a step back this year at 28%.  A league average strikeout rate is about 20%, so even with a return to his 2012 rate he would still struggle to maintain a solid batting average.

A 4% rise in strikeouts can't fully explain his collapse however, so we have to look a bit further to understand his struggles.  The usual culprit associated with a drop in performance is a player's BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  In 2012 Middlebrooks had a .335 BABIP, which helps to explain his solid batting average despite an above average strikeout rate.  So far in 2013 his BABIP is incredibly low, sitting at .221.  His line drive rate has dropped from 20% last year to 17% in 2013, which explains some of the drop in BABIP, but certainly not all of it.  Sometimes the baseball gods giveth, and sometimes they taketh away.

So what can we say about Will Middlebrooks going forward?  A player I would compare Middlebrooks with is Mark Reynolds.  They both have lots of power to go along with lots of strikeouts.  Reynolds had had some fantastic years, like in 2009 when he hit 44 HRs with a decent (for him) .260 batting average.  Unfortunately, like Middlebrooks, his success was fueled by an abnormally high BABIP and a line drive % above his career norm.  In fact, Reynolds 2009 rates are eerily similar to Middlebrooks' rookie year.  ('12 Middlebrooks: .335 BABIP/20% LDs, '09 Reynolds: .338 BABIP/20% LDs)  What is Reynolds' career line drive %?  You guessed it.  17%.

The one major difference between these two players is their walk rate.  Reynolds has a career 11.8% walk rate, which is why teams have been willing to play him through his slumps.  If he's not hitting home runs, at least he still gets on base at a decent rate.  Middlebrooks, on the other hand, has a 4.4% walk rate so far in his career.  That has translated to a .283 OBP, compared to Reynolds career mark of .331.  That is why Middlebrooks will be hitting for a AAA team tomorrow while Reynolds gets to work through his struggles in the middle of the Cleveland Indians lineup.

If Will Middlebrooks is going to have a career in the major leagues he's going to have to improve his overall plate discipline.  He needs to learn how to talk a walk every now and then while cutting down on his strikeouts.  Mark Reynolds is barely hanging on as it is, and he's a better hitter than Middlebrooks is right now.  Fortunately for Will, he's only 24 years old, while Reynolds is now pushing 30.  If he looks at this demotion as a chance to put in the work and improve his approach at the plate, there's a chance he can carve out a place for himself in this league.

Unfortunately, as a fantasy baseball manager, we are only concerned with what he can do for us right now.  And in Middlebrooks' case, it isn't much.  His success right now hinges on getting a lot of luck on balls in play to prop up his batting average, otherwise he's a lead weight attached to your team's neck in that category.

He could get called back up in a couple weeks and go on a BABIP fueled hot streak to match his rookie year.  Or, even with average "luck", he could struggle to stay above the Mendoza line.  The question is:  Do you feel lucky?

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