Verlander Signs Long-Term Extension... Bad Short-Term Investment?

Justin Verlander has just signed a 5-year, $80 million contract extension with the Detroit Tigers, who bought out his remaining arbitration years and will finally pay him like the ace he is.  It's hard to argue with their decision considering he has won at least 17 games with a sub-3.70 ERA in three of the last four years.  There is no doubt in my mind that, if he stays healthy for the duration, he will earn every dollar of that contract.  Unfortunately, after last season, I'm concerned about that right arm of his.

Verlander pitched a total of 202 and 201 innings in 07' and 08' respectively, but that total jumped to 240 innings last year when he lead the league in pitches thrown with 3931.  That was good for 112.3 pitches per game, which easily lead all of baseball, and 304 pitches ahead of 2nd place (Felix Hernandez with 3627).

How will all those pitches last year affect his upcoming season?  Nobody knows for sure.  Maybe they will simply be proof that Verlander can handle a crap-load of innings year to year with no negative impact on his performance.  Or maybe throwing all those innings at the age of 24-26 will prove too many for a relatively young arm and we will see a drop in his production in 2010.  It has been well documented that pitchers who exceed their IP totals the previous season by 40 or more are at a higher risk for injury or a "dead arm' period the following year.

Am I saying you should avoid drafting Verlander this season?  No, of course not.  Even at 75 or 80 percent effectiveness he is still better than most pitchers you'll draft this year.  Unfortunately, he's going to be drafted within the first 3 or 4 rounds of your draft and, considering the risk, I'm just not confident he'd make a solid return on that kind of investment.  At best you will get a slight regression from his career year in 09'.  At worst:  he blows out his elbow by the all-star break and goes to visit the dreaded Dr. Andrews.  Either way, I don't see him matching his numbers from last year.

The verdict:  Let another manager draft him early and roll the dice.  Go with a proven durable arm like Halladay or Sabathia instead.