Friday, June 21, 2013

Brian Dozier: Is this slick fielding infielder becoming fantasy relevant?

You are hereby forgiven if you have no idea who Brian Dozier is.  He is a 26 year old infielder playing second base for the Minnesota Twins and, coming into this year as a fantasy baseball manager, you had no good reason to pay attention to him.  With a .232/.271/.332 line in his rookie campaign last year, covering roughly half the season, fantasy owners were wise to ignore him, especially given his advanced age for a prospect.  Dozier, however, is doing his best to make us take notice.

Over his last 5 games, Brian Dozier has put up an absurd .375/.524/1.063 slash line with 3 HRs, 6 runs scored and 7 RBIs.  If you don't feel like doing the math, that comes out to a 1.586 OPS.  I can agree that these numbers scream small sample size, but when a middle infielder starts putting up these kind of numbers fantasy baseball owners across the land must take notice.  The question is, has Dozier turned a corner and become relevant, or should we chalk this Albert Pujols impression up to a lucky hot streak that should be shrugged off and forgotten?

In the minors in 2011, Dozier hit .320 with 9 HRs and 24 SBs over 569 plate appearances, most of which in AA.  He was called up halfway through '12 to play shortstop for the Twins before moving over to second base at the beginning of the current season.  He has accumulated 565 plate appearances in the majors so far, batting .234 with 12 HRs and 15 SBs.  Obviously, the batting average leaves much to be desired, but the power/speed combination shows promise.  The power has been improving throughout his career and the 24 SBs in '11 show upside in that category as well.

Can Dozier improve on his batting average?  He has a career .298 BA in the minor leagues and, more importantly, showed very good contact skills with only 184 strikeouts in 1,613 plate appearances while also taking a walk in over 10% of his ABs.  He's had a much higher strikeout rate so far in the majors, but his track record suggests he is capable of much more than his current .234 average would indicate.

The numbers he has put up so far put him on par with players like Rickie Weeks and Josh Rutledge, players who are certainly flawed but have earned playing time on many fantasy rosters this year, so Dozier is probably worth a reserve spot on your roster already.  Eligibility at both SS and 2B also helps his case.  If his current streak is an indication that he has turned a corner he could be a solid 5 category contributor atop the Twins lineup in the second half.

If you're desperate for production or depth at the middle infield positions, Dozier is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

No comments:

Post a Comment