Peter Bourjos, the 26 year old center fielder for the Los Angeles Angels, has been on a tear lately. Over his last 8 games he is batting .419 with 1 HR and 3 SBs. Thanks to his current hot streak, he is now batting .336/.383/.467 on the season, with 3 HRs and 4 SBs. He missed a month due to a hamstring issue, but it's hard to ignore the numbers he has put up when healthy this year. However, what we need to know is whether he will be able to keep this up. Let's have a look, shall we?
For his career Bourjos has a .258/.311/.410 line, but in his one full season in the majors, back in 2011, he hit .271 with 12 HRs and 22 SBs. I must admit, coming into the '12 season I had fairly high expectations for the kid. Unfortunately, he failed to produce at the plate last year, struggled with some injuries, and ultimately lost his full time gig as a result. It didn't help his cause that the Angels were loaded in the outfield and called up some prospect named Mike Trout to take Bourjos' spot in center field. We all know how that turned out.
The key to his success this year can be found in 3 statistics: His BABIP, line drive % and his strikeout rate. On the year he has a .404 BABIP, while his career number is .315, and league average is about 300. Speed players usually have a higher BABIP, which helps explain the .315 career number, but not the ridiculous average he's had this year. So, some of his success this year seems to be the result of some luck on balls in play.
His line drive % has also been a factor this year. In his previous three years in the majors his line drive percentages have been 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively. This year? 17%. The question is, how has he managed such a jump? Oddly enough, even at 17%, he is still below the league average of 19% line drives. He has always struggled to make consistent hard contact and, even now, is below average in this department. It's possible he's maturing as a hitter and adjusting to major league pitching finally, and the increase in his line drive rate, if he's able to maintain it, bodes well for his future and legitimizes his numbers somewhat this year.
The final number we'll look at is Bourjos' strikeout rate. He has struck out in 21.7% of his plate appearances so far in his career, topping out at 22.6% last year. This year he has brought that number down to 19%, which is about league average. Even though he's taken fewer walks this year as well (3.7% walk rate compared to his 5.4% career mark), making better contact is always a good thing.
So, he's gotten lucky with balls in play, but he's striking out less and hitting line drives at a much higher rate. The BABIP is going to come down some, and with it his batting average, but if the growth in his line drive rate is sustainable and he continues to make better contact, he should be able to maintain a good level of production.
He's still stuck in the 9th spot in the lineup, which will limit his production overall. But if he keeps producing, the Angels will have no choice but to pair him at the top of the lineup with Mike Trout, probably in the 2 hole, where he will be in position to score plenty of runs with the likes of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton hitting behind him.
If you are weak in the outfield, or just need some help in the stolen base category, Bourjos is definitely worth a flier. He could easily give you double digit steals the rest of the way, with the potential for 5 category impact if he's moved to the top of the lineup.
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